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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
MySportsbook.com - online sportsbook
MySportsbook is an online sportsbook, casino, poker room and racebook with Las Vegas $13,000,000.00 March Madness Bracket Contest and online blackjack gambling. Sports Book accepts credit cards.
offers free picks for NFL, NBA, college basketball, NCAA football, NHL, and MLB. pro commentary in sports handicapping contests.
MySportsbook is a rock solid online sportsbook. Why? Because they are regulated and part of the biggest internet sportsbook company in the world with college football betting. More reasons we like My Sportsbook is that there's no hassle in depositing and the best Blackjack around. Yes, finally an nfl football betting that offers credit card acceptance! They boast a 90% success rate in getting Visa and Mastercard to work!
MySportsbook also offers a ton of sportsbook options and college football betting info, promotions and bonuses which makes them a must have in your sports gambling arsenal. Points of interest include: In-game betting, a free no risk bet to their members each week, 10% sign-up bonus, the ability to buy points and move the line, 5% Juice on TNT Televeised football Games, 15 team teasers, 12 team parlays, and a 8% horse betting rebate in the racebook for all you horse betting fans.
Many consider Sportsbook to be the standard in the sports betting industry and for those bettors who don’t agree, they would at least have to admit this book puts up a strong argument.
Sportsbook attracts a lot of the professional action in the betting world due to its early lines, great odds value and high limits that are unmatched in the business. The average bettor has a spot here too, though - with a $2 minimum on wagers and the largest betting menu online, the smaller player will enjoy this book every bit as much as the wise guy.
Betting Options: 9.80
You name it. They got it. In addition to all the mainstream sports you can name in 30 seconds, Sportsbook sets lines on other events that most books wouldn’t even dream of.
You’ll find odds on hockey leagues that most bettors have never heard of as well as lines from futsal to football and everything in between. Sportsbook even offers an online casino 5% rebate program, just like getting comped in Las Vegas casino games.
All the major college and professional North American sports are listed along with odds for every major soccer league from Australia to Russia. And the best part of all is, if you don’t like the spread offered, just pick one you do. Sportsbook features a unique drop-down menu on most of their games that feature alternate spreads and the bettor has the option of choosing a different line with an adjusted price.
Football Betting claims to have the speediest payouts in the industry and it’s hard to argue with that. If it didn’t, it simply wouldn’t survive as long as it has due to the high volume and sharp action the book takes in.
As far as methods of payment are concerned, they are too numerous to mention here. Sportsbook takes pretty much whatever suits your needs including credit cards, debit cards, bank wires, Neteller, cashier’s checks and the list goes on. Transaction fees vary though they are competitive with most other books and the payment is swift when cashing out.
If there are two complaints about Sportsbook, they might be about its customer service and its lack of bonus options. But the truth is, they don’t really need either. The book and website run so smoothly and there is so much daily value in lines that you won’t need to complain and you won’t need a gimmicky bonus structure.
Payouts are fast, payment options are plentiful and you’ll rarely find complaints from customers across the Net on sports betting forums.
Sportsbook takes a different approach to promotions. The online poker promotions out there.
Instead, Sportsbook directs all the promotional funds towards lowering the juice for everyday bettors.
About the closest you can get to a promotion is the reward program at their poker room and casino, which rewards your play with rebates into your sports betting account.
Sportsbook is one of those books that you simply need to have an account with. You’ll often find the best lines and most options and if you want your lines before anyone else, this is the spot. Good bettors have their best chance of making the most of their wagers here.
My Sportsbook football betting Info and March Madness Bracket Contest :MY SPORTSBOOK
Sportsbooks offers members one of the easiest ways to fund a sportsbooks bonus account: credit cards! Sportsbooks Sportsbook now accepts Visa as a form of payment! All your favorite Las Vegas sports lines! NFL football, college football, NCAA basketball betting , NBA, NHL, WNBA, basketball betting, a huge horse racebook and more! Get into the game with multi-sport parlays and teasers and an extensive selection of props and exotic bets.
sports books guide including information on casinos, lotteries, bingo, poker, and more.
Sportsbook , Casino Games and Poker Room Review:
Sportsbooks SPORTSBOOK & CASINO
Phone number: 1-866-238-6648
Email: support@Sportsbooks.com Location: San Jose, Costa Rica
Minimum Deposit: $20
Deposit Methods: Credit Cards, Western Union, Checks and Bank Drafts
Payout Methods: Payout methods are: Instant Checks, Checks by mail or courier
Bonuses: 10% Cash Signup Bonus - Open an account today over $50, and we'll reward you with a 10% cash bonus on your first deposit. 8% Horse Betting Rebate Cash Reload Bonus - Reload your account with a deposit of $100 or more and you're eligible for a 10% cash bonus. Referral Bonus - Earn up to $500 for each friend you refer!
Minimum Wager: Online: $5
Perks: Headquartered in San Jose, Costa Rica, Sportsbooks.com is a fully licensed sportsbook providing the very best in online sportsbook, casino, and poker room wagering to thousands of people daily. Founded in 1995, Sportsbooks.com is now the global leader in safe and secure online wagering. A trusted source of sports betting information by such organizations as ESPN and CNN, Sportsbooks is the most respected brand in the business.
Sportsbooks was founded in Costa Rica in 1994 and since that time has steadily been climbing the ranks in the sportsbooks promotions industry. The site claims it has seen double-digit growth year over year and currently has over 600 English speaking employees in four countries.
The new interface of the website is a clean, easy to navigate design that has added features like the “Locker Room” – an area that features sports articles and info – and the Sportsbooks girls, who are worth the sign up itself to get the free swimsuit calendar and DVD.
Betting Options: 9.50
Sportsbooks lines offers all the sports you could possibly want from all the major North American sports and beyond. You’ll find football, basketball, baseball and hockey and a pile of sports from around the globe like European soccer, Aussie rules football, golf, tennis, volleyball and just about anything else you can think of.
This book is also widely known for its unusual wagers on hot topics. Early in 2010, Sportsbooks Super Bowl lines offered odds on which team Michael Vick would eventually sign with following his stint in prison and later in the year they offered lines on whether or not Twitter would be sold in 2010.
What Sportsbooks might be best known for though is its plethora of enticing bonus options that await you when you sign up.
When it comes to funding your account or receiving payouts, Sportsbooks is simple to use but it has a slightly more limited list of options than you might find at other books.
Sportsbooks Credit card deposits and cash transfers are the only two deposit methods listed on the site and payout options are limited to couriered check, electronic money transfers and bank wires. The upside to that is these are the most common options for most bettors and you’ll normally receive payment within 7-10 business days.
Sportsbooks betting lines is one of the most heavily trafficked sportsbooks in the world, so that should tell you something. As soon as you sign up, each customer is assigned a Personal Account Manager who is responsible for giving every player one-to-one service. They have an outstanding customer service team and even a 24/7 live chat option for whenever you need a question answered.
What Sportsbooks might be best known for though is its plethora of enticing bonus options that await you when you sign up. Their offers include: a 60 percent bonus when you make your first deposit and when you reload, a 25 percent bonus when you refer a friend, and football sportsbook gambler’s insurance where you get 10 percent of your losses back twice a year.
In total Sportsbooks bonus offers total 155 percent - and they have a bonus for everyone.
Sportsbooks claims to have the biggest bonuses in the business, so if you’re looking to give your bankroll a boost right off the bat, this might be the place for you.
This is one of the most user-friendly sportsbooks to open an account with and it’s tough to beat in terms of site design. The bonus options will help you keep more money in your account and no matter what sport you choose to wager on, you’ll find it here.
Whatever sport is your passion, Sportsbooks.com will take you front and center. Get the entire fast-paced and high-octane sports world right at your fingertips. From NBA Basketball to the Madness of NFL Football betting and everything in-between. Call 1-866-238-6648 or go to Sportsbooks.com to open an account and start betting today! Sportsbooks.com: A name you can trust. Use Sportsbooks.com's simple Instant Checks, for no fee deposits and for funds instantly available for wagering. Sportsbooks accepts Visa credit cards. Plus, you'll always get your winnings fast with unlimited free payouts, valuable bonuses, and the best customer service in the world! Current Offers: Receive a 10% Cash Bonus on your initial deposit, simply deposit $20 or more into your Sportsbooks account.
Betting Express is regarded as one of the better sports betting sites on the web and as they are one of the oldest sports books in operation and their great reputation for fast payouts and friendly customer service! They are also a players favorite because they give out 4 free $10 bets each month, sometimes more!
Betting Express football betting lines is best known for their reputation as an all around better sportsbook. Betting Express also makes it easy to deposit as unlike some sportsbook, Betting Expres is able to process Visa credit cards with a very high success rate.
Betting Express NFL Football Betting lines info:
When it comes to URLs, they don’t get much better than this but that’s far from the best part.
The sportsbook ranks in our top 5 and boasts the claim as the largest sportsbook and casino in the world with a peak of 15 bets per second. It focuses on catering to the needs of the average player and features low limits of just $5 with maximum wagers that should satisfy almost any user.
Betting Options: 9.30
Sportsbook has just about everything you can think of in terms of betting options. They have all the North American pro and college sports including daily spreads, totals, props, futures and other wagers like parlays and teasers.
Their list of props for all the big games rivals just about any in the industry and you’ll even find a nice surprise every once in a while where they offer a free $10 bet on a wager of their choosing. If you win the bet, you are credited with the amount in full and if you lose, your account won’t be charged with the loss.
You’ll also find other international sports like College football betting lines from all the major leagues around the world to auto racing to tennis and golf.
Sports betting lines is actually one of the few books left that you might find you can still fund your account with a credit card. That rates high on the convenience charts but the payment options don’t end there.
The book also offers wire transfers and cashier checks to name just two. The payouts are speedy and vary depending on which sports betting lines RSS withdrawal option you choose, but the book clearly lists the length of time to expect for each one.
Sportsbook has an excellent customer service team that you can count on to answer your questions whenever you need answers. It also features a number of help options on the site like a sports betting glossary and clear explanations of their rules with a section that even includes NFL football betting lines basics.
These guys have been around since 1996 so they know the importance of speedy payouts and keeping your money safe.
With over ten years online and as one of the largest online wagering sites in the world, you would think that Sports betting news had its bonus strategy completely figured out and streamlined – and you would be correct. It does.
They are not going to give away the house, but they are more than willing to reward you for signing up and sticking around. For instance, Covers users can get a 10 percent sign-up bonus, as well as a 20 percent referral bonus, not to mention different bonuses available for casino rebate and online poker players.
Finally, worth mentioning are the numerous different promos that Sportsbook likes to offer sports fans, such as free plays for mobile phone bettors, Reduced Juice Fridays, and free wager rewards for in-game betting.
Sportsbook is a perfect option for the everyday sports bettor. It’s easy to navigate and you’ll find all the lines you need. Your account will be easy to fund and the payouts are speedy, two things you don’t always get these days. So get into the action and sign up today.
Betting Express Phone number: 1-866-238-6648
Email:: custserv@Betting Express.com
Location: London, and Costa Rica Since: 1997
Minimum Deposit: Internet using Visa: $20 Deposit Methods: Visa, Mastercard, Cashiers Check, & Bankwire Bonuses: Up to 15% bonus on your first deposit! 5% Re-up bonuses on Thursday's!
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Perks: Betting Express offers the best mix of football betting lines available! Half juice basketball Friday's, FREE $50 bet Sunday's, 10% Reload Thursday's! The best withdrawal policies of any book as well! There are no more FedEx and bank wire fees charged, regardless of the amount of the withdrawal. YOUR FIRST FOUR WITHDRAWALS ARE FREE OF CHARGE EACH CALENDAR MONTH, regardless of how the withdrawal is sent. However, if you request 5 or more withdrawals in a calendar month, each withdrawal after the fourth will be charged a flat $30 processing fee. Open an account today at Betting Express Sportbook by clicking here!