Alabama visits Kentucky in SEC action

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/09/2010 - Lexington, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Alabama Crimson Tide invade Rupp Arena this evening for an SEC clash with the third-ranked Kentucky Wildcats.

Alabama is a respectable 13-10 overall, but that record is overshadowed by a 3-6 mark versus league opponents. The Crimson Tide have suffered three consecutive defeats, including a 74-67 setback at Ole Miss on Saturday. The two previous losses to Auburn and Florida both came by one point.

Kentucky opened this season with 19 consecutive wins before finally tasting defeat against South Carolina in late January. Since that setback, the Wildcats have recorded three consecutive victories, the most recent of which came on Saturday over LSU in an 81-55 final. Coach John Calipari's club is now 7-1 in SEC action and carries a 14-0 home record into this evening's affair.

The Wildcats own a commanding 98-35 series advantage over the Crimson Tide, which includes wins in the last two meetings.

The Crimson Tide depend heavily on the duo of Mikhail Torrance and JaMychal Green to be productive at the offensive each time out. Torrance leads the club with 15.3 ppg and 128 assists. As for Green, he provides 14.7 ppg, 7.1 rpg and 47 blocks while shooting 51.2 percent from the floor. Alabama is generating 68.2 ppg while limiting opponents to 62.9 ppg on 41.5 percent field goal efficiency. In the seven-point loss to Ole Miss on Saturday, Green scored 18 points and grabbed seven rebounds, while Tony Mitchell netted 16 points. Torrance finished with 12 points and seven assists for the Tide, who committed twice as many turnovers as the Rebels and were outscored 25-13 from the foul line. The negatives clearly overshadowed 50 percent shooting from the floor.

For much of this season, Kentucky freshman John Wall has been hyped as the best player on the Wildcats roster and perhaps the top performer in all of college basketball. Recently, however, fellow rookie DeMarcus Cousins has emerged as the true standout on a loaded Kentucky team. Cousins has paced the squad in both scoring and rebounding in four consecutive games and is now averaging the same amount of points as Wall (16.4 ppg). The big man is shooting 54.2 percent from the field and grabbing 10.0 rpg, while Wall, a point guard, has dished out 146 assists to complement 41 steals. Patrick Patterson provides 15.1 ppg for the Wildcats, who are generating 82.3 ppg while surrendering 65.9 ppg on 38.1 percent shooting by opponents. In the romp over LSU on Saturday, Cousins racked up 19 points and 13 rebounds. Patterson added 16 points, while Wall struggled his way to six points.

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.

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